As always, Wednesday in the MLB means day games, with the first one today set for a 1:10 p.m. ET start.
So, without further ado, let's get right into our favorite MLB player props today, including our best MLB home run bets.
Joc Pederson Home Run (+375) BetMGM
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
Pederson is not an everyday player for the Diamondbacks, instead only starting when they are facing a right-handed pitcher. Luckily for him (and us), he is facing the worst pitcher in MLB when it comes to allowing home runs to left-handed batters.
Roddery Munoz is pitching for the Marlins, and Munoz has a HR/9 of 3.71 against lefties, which is quite literally the worst in MLB of all pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings against LHH. For context, the second-worst HR/9 with the same qualifications is 2.30, with only nine other pitchers even above 2.00. So, Munoz is in a category of his own in terms of how frequently he allows home runs to lefties.
The reality is you could not go wrong taking any lefty batter on the Diamondbacks, but Pederson has been red-hot and is a great bet tonight.
Of all batters who have seen at least 40 at-bats against righties over the past four weeks (taking out the smaller sample size batters), Pederson has the highest ISO rate in MLB at .521, with seven home runs hit and a barrel rate of 20.83%.
Unsurprisingly, Pederson has also crushed the pitch-mix of Munoz over the past four weeks, which consists of 4-seam fastballs (30.51% of the time), sinkers (22.31%), sliders (18.21%), changeups (14.62%) and cutters (14.36%).
Pederson especially hits 4-seam fastballs hard, with three of his seven home runs coming off the 4-seamer. His barrel rate (30.77%) and HardHit rate (85.71%) against the 4-seamer are also impressive.
Jake Burger Home Run (+420) FanDuel
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
While Burger did not hit a home run yesterday, he crushed a double off the wall that traveled 396 feet and was 102 mph off the bat. Close, but no cigar, but we like the fact that he is staying hot at the plate. He leads MLB with 12 home runs hit in the last four weeks and is tied with Juan Soto with the most home runs in the last 14 days with seven.
As for today, he is facing a lefty in Jordan Montgomery for the Diamondbacks, who has been absolutely awful this season. He admittedly has not allowed a ton of home runs, as he has been more of a contact pitcher, but he is worse in that category against right-handed hitters. All 10 of the home runs Montgomery has allowed have come against RHH, with a HR/9 of 1.23 against RHH.
Montgomery also mostly throws sinkers (30% of the time), and Burger has crushed sinkers over the past month. In only six at-bats, he has three hits, two extra-base hits -- including a home run -- as well as a 16.67% barrel rate and 80% HardHit rate.
From there, Montgomery throws changeups 27.5% of the time, and Burger has similarly hit those hard over the past month, with one home run and a 12.50% barrel rate.
Jackson Merrill Home Run (+560) FanDuel
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres, 6:40 p.m. ET
As always, we save our final play of the day for the one with the juiciest odds. We are backing Jackson Merrill, who has been hitting the tar out of the baseball but has been unlucky in terms of getting one to go yard.
Merrill is mostly going to see 4-seam fastballs (38.65% of the time), changeups (30%) and sliders (21.62%) today from Twins pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson. Here are Merrill's last six at-bats against those types of pitches from right-handed pitchers.
- 97.4 mph exit velocity, 354 foot flyout (4-seam fastball)
- 105.1 mph off the bat, 344 foot lineout (4-seam fastball)
- 110 mph exit velocity for a double (4-seam fastball)
- 98.5 mph flyout that traveled 346 feet (4-seam fastball)
- 99.5 mph flyout for 354 feet (4-seam fastball)
- 102.5 mph off the bat for a double (changeup)
- 96.1 mph flyout (slider)
This is all within the past three days, going back to August 18. As for Woods Richardson, he is not a typical pitcher that we would target for allowing a ton of home runs, but he is not anybody to be scared off of, either.
He has thrown about 107 innings this year, and of all pitchers who have thrown 100-plus innings, he allows the 14th-highest launch angle and the 20th-highest barrel rate. FanGraphs measures the quality of his pitches via a stat they call "Stuff +", which grades each pitch based on the spin rate, movement, etc., with 100 being completely average.
Anything below 100 would be considered below-average, and the only pitch listed above that Woods Richardson throws that is above-average is his changeup, which has a Stuff+ of 103. His fastball is significantly below-average at 73, with his slider at 93.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
